UFC 140: A Bettor’s Guide


Written by: AJ Hoffman


UFC 140 marks the next light heavyweight title defense for Jon Jones, as he takes on Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. The matchup offers some interesting value. The top-heavy card also includes the Nogueira brothers, Frank Mir, Tito Ortiz and Mark Hominick. The entire card is handicapped below.


John Cholish
VS Mitch Clarke

This is a tough one to call, as both of these guys have spent most of their careers on the local level, Clarke in the Canadian circuit. Cholish is an Ivy League educated wrestler, and will likely try to bully Clarke, who should be the smaller fighter. Clarke has good submissions from the little I have found on him. There are two trains of thought here. Go with the favorite who has seen better competition, or roll the dice on a big underdog when neither is a known commodity. I will be doing the latter. CLARKE DEF. CHOLISH BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)

Rich Attonito
VS Jake Hecht

Hecht has had a little more big card experience than the other debuting guys. He has fought in the UK and Jordan. Rich Attonito is a different level of fighter. Especially since he moved to 170, he is going to be tough for Hecht to handle. I see him controlling the fight with his grappling and grinding out a decision.  ATTONITO DEF. HECHT BY DECISION

Mark Bocek
VS Nik Lentz

I see this as being one of the nice value plays of the night. Both guys are very solid grapplers, but for Lentz to have a 15 fight unbeaten streak and be an underdog is pretty appealing. Bocek has lost two of his last three, albeit to Ben Henderson and Jim Miller, and this is an important fight for him. I think Lentz lays and prays and pulls off the upset.  LENTZ DEF. BOCEK BY DECISION

Yves Jabouin
VS Walel Watson

Watson looked great in his UFC debut, getting a TKO win in just over a minute. He is more of a submission guy, and I can’t picture him standing for too long with Jabouin, who has nasty power for the weight class. Look for Jabouin to use his takedown defense and punish Watson at every attempt. Unless he gets caught with something silly, this should be a stoppage win for Jabouin. JABOUIN DEF. WATSON BY DECISION

John Makdessi
VS Dennis Hallman

Makdessi puts his unbeaten record on the line against Dennis Hallman, who has 67 fights but is probably best known for his left nut falling out of his man-thong at UFC 133. This is the most experienced and probably the best fighter Makdessi has faced. Again, a fight I could see going either way, but you know I am a value man, and the value here is on Hallman. HALLMAN DEF. MAKDESSI BY DECISION

  Jared Hamman
VS Constantinos Phillipou

This is going down as one of my safest bets of the night, so buyer beware. That has been a curse lately. Hamman is just better. Phillipou won a split decision last time out, and his first shot in the UFC he was unimpressive. Hamman, at worst, always puts on a show, having won two fight of the night bonuses in his four UFC fights. Hamman will keep it standing and use his heavy hands to finish this fight. HAMMAN DEF. PHILLIPOU BY KO (RD 2)

Krzysztof Soszynski
VS Igor Pokrajac

Soszynski has won 3 of 4, and his one loss was an insane comeback win for Stephan Bonnar. Pokrajac is a pretty complete fighter, but has been really inconsistent since coming to the UFC. Soszynski is on a mission, and he can’t afford to lose to a guy like Pokrajac at this point in his career. SOSZYNSKI DEF. POKRAJAC BY TKO (RD 2)


Mark Hominick
VS Chan Sung Jung

The Korean Zombie is literally as tough as they come. He is tough to finish, and always puts on a show. Mark Hominick is just a lot better fighter. Hominick should have the FAR superior striking. Look for him to pick Jung apart, eventually forcing Jung to make sloppy takedown attempts, only to take more damage. Jung might last til the last bell, but I doubt it.  HOMINICK DEF. JUNG BY TKO (RD 3)

Brian Ebersole
VS Claude Patrick

This is the closest fight according to the oddsmaker, and I can see why. Both are very solid. Patrick has won 11 straight fights. Ebersole has won 8 straight fights. Ebersole is really well rounded. He is a division 1 wrestler, trains Muay Thai in Phuket, and has NASTY ground and pound. Patrick is very exciting submission fighter. Ebersole has too many tools in the shed though, and will beat Patrick in front of his home fans, pinning his first loss on Patrick since 2002. EBERSOLE DEF. PATRICK BY TKO (RD 2)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
VS Tito Ortiz

OK. So I know I was wrong about Tito never winning a fight again when he fought Bader. But not after he lost to Rashad, I am on a new streak. Tito Ortiz will never win another fight. Little Nog has looked rough in his last 3 fights. Two of them were losses to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader, the other a controversial decision win over Jason Brilz. He will still find a way to be better than Ortiz. NOGUEIRA DEF. ORTIZ BY DECISION

  Frank Mir
VS Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

This was a dominant win for Mir the first time, as he used his size and strength advantage to bully Nogueira around the cage before becoming the first guy to ever finish “Big Nog”. Nogueira wasn’t himself in that fight, and Mir is inconsistent enough that at this price I will play Nogueira and hope he keeps his hands up. NOGUEIRA DEF. MIR BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)


Jon Jones
VS Lyoto Machida

Lyoto Machida is going to be an awkward matchup for anyone. He is an unorthodox striker and is great at punishing overly aggressive strikers. This may be a spot for Jones to showcase his wrestling. He is obviously not a cupcake matchup himself. Machida will have to show he has fixed the holes in his game that Shogun Rua exposed in their two fights. Machida will definitely make this a fight, but Bones Jones will be too much to finish. It is tempting if the number gets up around +375 to +400, which it very well could by fight time. JONES DEF. MACHIDA BY TKO (RD 4)


(all head shots used courtesy of UFC.com)