UFC 132: A Bettor’s Guide

Written by: AJ Hoffman

UFC 132 features 3 of the biggest draws in MMA history, though it is questionable whether any of those 3 are in their prime. Urijah Faber, once the face of lower weight MMA, has worked his way up to a title shot against 135 lb. champion Dominick Cruz. PRIDE legend Wanderelei Silva takes on a very similar fighter in Chris Leben. Finally, Tito Ortiz takes on Ryan Bader in a match that Dana White has said Tito must win if he wants to stay in the UFC. Really solid card top to bottom, and it is handicapped below. Enjoy.

PRELIMINARIES

Donny Walker
(-240)
VS Jeff Hougland
(+190)

Very similar resumes leading into this fight with two fighters making their UFC debuts. Walker has a 15-6 record, but is on a 7 fight win streak. His record includes losses to Jeff Curran and Cub Swanson. Hougland is 9-4, and on an 8 fight winning streak of his own. One of those 4 losses came against Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez. Hougland has been a submission machine, and Walker has proven susceptible to submissions. Gimme the upset.  HOUGLAND DEF. WALKER BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)

Anthony Njokuani
(-155)
VS Andre Winner
(+125)

Two guys likely battling for their jobs in this one. Njokuani lost a unanimous decision to uber prospect Edson Barboza last time out, but proved that he was no pushover in the process. Winner is coming off back to back dominations at the hands of Nik Lentz and Dennis Siver. Winner is still pretty one dimensional, and I think he has been figured out.  NJOUKUANI DEF. WINNER BY DECISION

Aaron Simpson
(-240)
VS Brad Tavares
(+190)

Maybe pretty rare that you get an unbeaten pro as such a big underdog, but Tavares is taking a huge step up in competition here. Simpson is a world class wrestler with brutal ground and pound. Look for Simpson to control where the fight takes place, and dominate Tavares when it is on the floor. SIMPSON DEF. TAVARES BY TKO (RD 2)

Brian Bowles
(-350)
VS Takeya Mizugaki
(+250)

No offense to Takeya Mizugaki, but this is just over his head. Bowles is the much more accomplished fighter and has only lost to Dominick Cruz, and even then by a doctor’s stoppage due to a broken hand. Mizugaki is on again, off again, and usually finds himself on the losing end against higher level competition. Brian Bowles is much higher level competition. BOWLES DEF. MIZUGAKI BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)

George Sotiropoulos
(-240)
VS Rafael dos Anjos
(+190)

This is a matchup of two great jiu jitsu players. Sotiropoulos is coming off his first loss in the UFC, a decision to Dennis Siver. Dos Anjos is fighting for the first time since suffering a jaw injury against Clay Guida. I like Sotiropoulos’ complete game a little bit more, but this number doesn’t provide much value given the risk. Line should be closer. I will take the Aussie, but I am not pushing hard. SOTIROPOULOS DEF. DOS ANJOS BY SUBMISSION (RD 3)

Melvin Guillard
(-280)
VS Shane Roller
(+210)

Melvin Guillard looks to continue to his goal of a title shot against Shane Roller. He has won 6 of his 7 fights in this most recent run with the UFC, and a win here could push him into the title conversation. He has been impressive with stoppage wins against Evan Dunham and Dennis Siver during the streak. Roller may be a little overlooked, but he went 5-2 in WEC with his only losses against Ben Henderson and Anthony Pettis. If Roller can make this fight last longer than a round I give him a really good chance. I don’t think it happens here though. Guillard is too hot right now. GUILLARD DEF. ROLLER BY TKO (RD 1)


MAIN CARD

Dennis Siver
(-130)
VS Matt Wiman
(+100)

Siver has won 6 out of 7 in his second stint with the UFC, with wins over Spencer Fisher and George Sotiropoulos capping his resume. Wiman is a boring, but safe fighter. He knows when he is outmatched in the standup, and he clearly will be in this fight. Look for Wiman to take Siver down and control him, much the way Gray Maynard did in his 2008 meeting with Siver.  WIMAN DEF. SIVER BY DECISION

Ryan Bader
(-500)
VS Tito Ortiz
(+350)

You are kidding me, right? This is going to be ugly. BADER DEF. ORTIZ BY TKO (RD 1)

Dong Hyun Kim
(-125)
VS Carlos Condit
(-105)

While this fight doesn’t have quite the flash of some of the other fights on the card, this could very well be the most competitive bout of the night. Condit has won 10 of his last 11 and Kim is still unbeaten in 16 fights. Condit has impressed me the last few times out, and I expect he keeps up the run. CONDIT DEF. KIM BY SUBMISSION (RD 3)

Wanderlei Silva
(-170)
VS Chris Leben
(+140)

Every once in a while, the UFC puts together a matchup for the fans. This is one of those matchups. These guys will likely be more than happy to stand in the middle of the cage and throw hands until someone drops. It doesn’t get much better than this. Not one that I want to wager too much on, given that this could end with one punch either way. SILVA DEF. LEBEN BY TKO (RD 1)

MAIN EVENT

Dominick Cruz
(-160)
VS Urijah Faber
(+130)

I think this is a very tight matchup, and I think the line is pretty fair. Faber gave Cruz his only loss, a first round submission back in 2007. A few losses and a drop in weight class later, Faber finds himself lined up to take a crack at Cruz’s title. The first fight was so quick it was hard to determine how Cruz’s confusing striking would work against Faber. I think the fight lasts a little bit longer, but Faber has looked so strong at 135 I am getting the feeling we may see some vintage Urijah. Should be a classic.  FABER DEF. CRUZ BY DECISION

SAFEST PICKS BADER, BOWLES
RISKIEST PICKS FABER, CONDIT
CONSERVATIVE PARLAY BADER, BOWLES, SIMPSON, NJOKUANI- PAYS 5/2
MODERATE PARLAY SILVA, BOWLES, NJOKUANI, WIMAN- PAYS 15/2
AGGRESSIVE PARLAY FABER, CONDIT, WIMAN, SIMPSON- PAYS 23/2
LOTTERY TICKET PARLAY ALL 11 FIGHTS- PAYS 265/1

(all head shots used courtesy of UFC.com)