UFC 129 – Houston MMA Picks

UFC 129 is only days away and as usual, we’ve gathered a team of Houston area MMA folks to chime on on how they think the fights are going to go. Make sure you get your picks in on our FAN PICK’em CONTEST. If you win, you’ll be on our picks panel for the next UFC card AND you could win a TCD Beanie.

Alos, don’t forget to RSVP for our WATCH PARTY!! We’ll have prizes, and XBOX UFC Challenge and more! See you tomorrow!

The group is comprised of the following:

UFC Veterans

Houston MMA fighters

MMA Manager

Local Promoters

Media Personalities

See what they think below and then feel free to chime in with your picks and predictions in the comments section.

QUICK PICKS

Jabouin
vs
Garza
Makdessi
vs
Watson
Jensen
vs
MacDonald
Menjivar
vs
Valencia
Patrick
vs
Roberts
Ellenberger
vs
Pierson
Diaz
vs
MacDonald
AJ Jobouin Makdessi MacDonald Valencia Patrick Ellenberger Diaz
Alex Garza Makdessi Jensen Valencia Roberts Ellenberger Diaz
Barry Garza Makdessi Jensen Menjivar Roberts Ellenberger Diaz
Chris Garza Makdessi Jensen Valencia Roberts Ellenberger Diaz
Justin Jobouin Makdessi Jensen Valencia Patrick Ellenberger Diaz
Mike Jobouin Makdessi MacDonald Valencia Roberts Ellenberger MacDonald
Ragan Garza Makdessi MacDonald Menjivar Roberts Ellenberger Diaz
Rich Jobouin Watson Jensen Valencia Roberts Ellenberger Diaz
Sam Garza Makdessi Jensen Menjivar Patrick Ellenberger Diaz


Vladimir Matyushenko VS Jason Brilz

Expert Who When How Why
AJ Matyushenko Goes the Distance Decision I think people are underselling The Janitor because he got wrecked by Jon Jones. That is his only loss since he got to the UFC. Brilz lost to Eliot Marshall. Enough said.
Alex Brilz Goes the Distance Decision I haven’t been impressed with Matyushenko since he has been in the UFC so i think Brilz will grind out the decision
Barry Brilz Goes the Distance Decision I’ll probably play some Xbox until this fight is over.
Chris Brilz Rd 3 Submission This will be a ground war, but if Brilz avoids the GnP he will catch the Submission, say, uh round 3.
Justin Brilz Goes the Distance Decision Think Brilz will edge the janitor in the dullest fight on the main card.
Mike Matyushenko Goes the Distance Decision *Snooze* I don’t really care about this matchup but like AJ said on the radio, if Brilz can lose to Elliot Marshall, he will definitely lose to the grizzly-vet Vladimir.
Ragan Matyushenko Goes the Distance Decision This will be the “boooooooooo!!!!” fight for the crowd.  Matyushenko has the better clinch and will use that to put Brilz on his back and control with his top game.  Maty also has better dirty boxing and will move good enough to avoid having Brilz in a dominant position.  This is more of a time-filler between the other badass fights on this card and will be when I am making another Red Bull and Goose in the kitchen, getting updates from my son.
Rich Brilz Goes the Distance Decision Time for Brilz to put The Janitor in the trash!!
Sam Brilz Goes the Distance Decision Jason by fountain of Youth.

Ben Henderson VS Mark Bocek

Expert Who When How Why
AJ Henderson Rd 2 Submission I think the UFC really wants to get Henderson back on track. Bocek is solid, but not on the same level as “Smooth.” I think Henderson makes quick work of him.
Alex Bocek Rd 2 Submission Ben Henderson has shown that he can be caught in submissions pretty easy but once hes caught he is almost impossible to finish, but Bocek has sick jiu jitsu and if he catches Henderson then he will finish him
Barry Henderson Rd 2 Submission Henderson is not only fun to watch, but very talented. Bocek is outstanding on the ground, but Ben is more well rounded.
Chris Bocek Rd 2 Submission Henderson doesn’t need to worry about Bocek walking up the cage wall like he did Pettis, but Bocek is too good on the ground.
Justin Bocek Rd 1 Submission Bocek is a solid black belt and it will be hard for Henderson to wiggle out of one of Bocek’s submissions. I love the way Henderson fights but I think he gets caught in this one
Mike Bocek Goes the Distance Decision Many would pick Bendo for the win here but if it goes to the ground, Bocek will prove to be the superior fighter on the ground. This fight of probably a pick-em but I’ll go with the Canadian for the win on his home soil.
Ragan Henderson Goes the Distance Decision After losing the badass fight against Petis, Henderson makes his UFC debut and will be a “must win” to get back in the title chase.  Neither guy has “outstanding” stand up and both have great wrestling and submission games.  With Henderson being the better wrestler, he will use that to stay on the offense against a better submission fighter and win a somewhat boring ground war.
Rich Bocek Rd 3 Submission Bocek is a beast on the ground and Hendersons slimy submissions escapes will eventually dry up.
Sam Henderson Rd 3 TKO Ben will get this because he knows where to apply preassure and has been more high profile matches.

Lyoto Machida VS Randy Couture

Expert Who When How Why
AJ Couture Goes the Distance Decision Couture is way too big of an underdog here. It is a tough call, because I can easily see him getting knocked out, but I don’t think he will chase Machida and play into his game. We haven’t seen a wrestler try and put him down, since Evans thought he was Sugar Ray Leonard when they fought. I think Couture will be a frustrating puzzle for The Dragon to solve.
Alex Machida Rd 1 KO I think Machida went back to the drawing bored and changed his game up a little, hes going to be hungry and wanting to finish randy. when Machida is on his a game he is almost impossible to touch and i think he will bring his a game Saturday
Barry Couture Goes the Distance Decision Couture is to strong for Machida and once he gets him against the cage he (Machida) won’t be able to do much.
Chris Couture Goes the Distance Decision This one will go the distance and Couture will win with experience and control. There is no one better at game planning than Couture and he will control Machida on the cage and ground.
Justin Machida Rd 3 TKO Think Vera vs Couture 2 but this time machida will finish couture when Vera let the opportunity pass by.  Love Randy couture but I think it’s time
Mike Machida Rd 3 TKO Too quick, too fast, too young, and too good of a grappler for Randy to beat at this stage of his career. Father time is a master strategist but he won’t be able to smother Lyoto like he’s done to others in the past.
Ragan Machida Goes the Distance Decision After losing two fights in a row, Machida is in a “must win” situation.  After dominating his way to the title, people have seemed to jump-ship off of the Machida bandwagon.  I may be the only one that thinks Couture isn’t a top level fighter.  He has a good clinch but Machida will be MUCH faster and will eventually pick the old bastard apart.  I watched Couture on “Pro’s vs Joe’s” a while back after he retired for the 3rd or 4th time.  Dude just needs to go ahead and retire, especially once Machida makes him look all of those 47 years.  Machida is BACK, bitches!!!!  Everyone can shed a tear as Randy thanks the fans after the fight while Doc Johnson stitches him up cageside.
Rich Machida Rd 2 TKO Why do I have to pick against Randy??? Just seems wrong.. Lyotos speed is to much for Randy. I really hope I am wrong.
Sam Machida Goes the Distance Decision Machida by boring dec.

Jose Aldo VS Mark Hominick

Expert Who When How Why
AJ Aldo Rd 2 TKO Hominick has great standup, but not much else. Faber was able to neutralize (relatively) Aldo with his wrestling enough to go the distance. Hominick’s only real option is to stand and bang with him. Can’t picture a way that it ends well for Hominick.
Alex Aldo Rd 2 KO Jose is in my opinion the best pound for pound fighter in the world. im also a huge fan of Hominick and his stand up but i just think Jose is going to overwhelm him and get to ko in the 2nd
Barry Aldo Rd 3 TKO I said on our podcast that I’m in love with Hominick’s foot work, but Also is one of the best fighters pound for pound around.
Chris Aldo Rd 1 TKO Hominick just isn’t ready for this fight and I think its one of the most lopsided on the card.
Justin Aldo Rd 2 TKO Hominick is a great striker but Aldo is great everywhere.  Don’t blink in this fight
Mike Aldo Rd 3 KO Welcome back Jose Aldo! Hominick is a well-versed striker but Aldo is just on another level as a fully-developed fighter. Look for him to make a statement and beat Hominick at his own game and win via a flying knee
Ragan Aldo Rd3 TKO Hominick moves really good but Aldo will adjust as the fight goes on and find his range.  Aldo is the more patient fighter of the two and Hominick will make a mistake.  Once he makes that mistake, Hominick will be in trouble as Aldo finishes the fight like he normally does.  Aldo will land leg kick after leg kick to take everything out of Hominick and will continue his dominance of the featherweight class.
Rich Aldo Rd 2 TKO Aldo is one of the best lb for lb fighters in the world but this will be the first true striker he is fighting. As technical as Mark is, he will have a hard time with the speed and aggression that Also brings
Sam Aldo Rd 1 Submission When striking doesn’t work the next door opens up. Aldo has world class BJJ so he will probably show if off.

Georges St. Pierre VS Jake Shields

Expert Who When How Why
AJ St. Pierre Rd 4 TKO Jake Shields is good, but not this kind of good. I have seen way better fighters wrecked by GSP. Shields is a one trick pony, and that can’t beat GSP. I expect 4 rounds of takedowns and face punching. Shields doesn’t have the gas tank at this weight to go the distance. He was gassed against Kampmann, and lucky he won that fight. GSP is a monster.
Alex St. Pierre Rd 3 TKO ive been watching some of Jakes training videos for the last few weeks and his stand up looks like a decent ammeters. i hope he has worked a lot on his take downs because thats the only way he will possibly win. I see GSP keeping his distance and picking him apart the first 2 rounds then finishing him off in the 3rd
Barry St. Pierre Goes The Distance Decision St. Pierre is one of the best mixed martial artist in the world. Jake Shields is one of the best BJJ guys in MMA. Big difference.
Chris St. Pierre Rd 3 TKO Not taking anything away from Shields, he dominated everyone in Strikeforce but this is a different stage and GSP is just that good. Shields will tire from trying to control the “slippery” GSP and will get caught himself in Rd 3
Justin St. Pierre Rd 3 TKO GSP all day. I think this will be the koscheck fight all over again except GSP will shields since his stand up is no where near Koschecks.
Mike St. Pierre Goes The Distance Decision St. Pierre has been so utterly dominant that I’m actually resisting the urge to pick Shields for the upset win here. Him submitting GSP would be a Hail Mary at this point and I look for the Canadian to beat him much like he did Koscheck.
Ragan St. Pierre Goes The Distance Decision I don’t know why everyone is counting Shields out in this fight.  His grappling is phenomenal, better than GSP’s.  He will push the issue with the takedown and will be more successful than either Koscheck or Fitch.  Shields has the ability to recover quickly (see the Henderson fight) and his transitions are flawless.  He is extremely comfortable on his back.  GSP will have the pressure of 55K cheering fans and Shields thrives on being the “bad guy”.  Shields is training with some of the best in the world.  With all of that being said, it still won’t be enough.  I think GSP wins a dominant, one-sided fight.
Rich St. Pierre Goes The Distance Decision GSP is the cream of the crop in MMA. Shields is one of the best in the world on the ground. This fight comes down to if Jake can catch GSP making a mistake on the ground. Not gonna happen
Sam St. Pierre Rd 3 TKO GSP is too good and Sheilds just isn’t that bad.