Predictions: IXFA 6 – February 26, 2011

You know the drill Houston, you’ve seen us do this a million times. OK, maybe not a million but thousands at least…kind of. ANYWAY, Our prognosticators are back and feeling pretty good about themselves. Back again are Justin Trapp (FighterPortraits.com), Mike Calimbas (TXMMA.com) and Rich Burmaster (1560 AM’s “The Mount”), Lance Edwards (TheCageDoor.net) and AJ Hoffman (ESPN 97.5, Houston MMA Examiner). Joining the group is Houston MMA media kingpin Adam Villarreal (Tapout Magazine,ESPN 97.5 FM’s “In the Cage”) as well as the winner from our last Houston MMA pick’em contest, Jermaine F!

Instead of keeping our experts record like we did last year, this year we’ll be keeping track of their point total.  For every correct pick they get +5, for every correct round picked they get +2 and for every method they pick right they get +3.  If they pick the correct award winner they get +5 for each. If this sound familiar it’s because we are using the same scoring system for our Fans Pick’em Contest.  You can play along and when the fights are over, we’ll compare your score to our experts!  Plus, if you score the highest, you get to be on our NEXT experts panel just like Jermaine!

Do you agree with them or do you think they are crazy? Either way, let ’em know!  When you’re done reading all the pics, feel free to leave your comments below and let our experts and Houston know who you think is going to win and why.


PREDICTIONS

Pat Bierschwale vs Jeremy Morris

Pat Bierschwale Name Jeremy Morris Jeremy Morris
Nickname
5’10″ / 185lbs Ht/Wt 5’9″ / 170lbs
Not Ranked Rank Not Ranked
0-0-0 Record 1-0-0
West Side MMA Gym 646 MMA
AJ,Justin,Lance,

Mike,Rich,Jermaine

Picks Adam

Adam:

Prediction: Jeremy Morris Rd 1 TKO

AJ: I think this should be one of the more competitive fights of the night, but with not a lot of experience for either guy, I will take the one who beat John Malbrough in the amateur ranks. That is looking more impressive lately.

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Goes the Distance Decision

Justin: Seen both of these guys fight and think it will be scrap.  Pat likes to grind on guys and if he can get on top and turn it into a grinder I think he can pull it out.

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Unanimous Decision

Lance: Both these guys are tough guys, I think it will be a war, I went with Pat for the nod.

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Unanimous Decision

Mike: Really tough pro debut for Bison Bierschwale and a true test. I see his opportunity to win coming by way of gritting this one out and controlling from top position. He’ll have to be wary of submissions from the bottom against Morris but I’ve seen Pat roll enough to believe he should put himself in vulnerable situations.

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Goes the Distance Decision

Rich: Morris looked good in his last fight winning by submission. Bierschwale would love for this fight to go to the ground Where he Can show off his new purple belt skills

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Rd 2 TKO

Jermaine: Gotta admit I dont know a whole hell of a lot about Jeremy Morris, but I know The Bison is a beast on the ground and I see him using his stout ground game to take the submission win in the 2nd.

Prediction: Pat Bierschwale Rd 2 Submission

Tony Orozco vs Shawn Machado

Gilbert Jiminez Tony Orozco Name Shawn Machado Shawn Machado
Nickname
5’8″ / 170lbs Ht/Wt 5’8″ / 170lbs
Not Ranked Rank Not Ranked
0-0-0 Record 1-0-0
Silverback Fight Club Gym Hoger MMA
Lance,Mike, Rich Picks Adam,AJ,Justin

Jermaine

Adam:

Prediction: Shawn Machado Goes the Distance Decision

AJ: I will go with Shawn (an unpopular pick I am sure) based solely on the fact that Tony doesn’t have any amateur experience and is hopping in for his first fight. I know he is a tough dude, but that just seems like a tall task.

Prediction: Shawn Machado Goes the Distance Decision

Justin: I am anxious to see the head Gorilla step in the cage against the Hoger MMA product.  I have only seen Machado fight so I have to go with what I have seen.

Prediction: Shawn Machado Rd 3 Submission

Lance: Tough call, we havent seen Tony in the ring, however he has a solid background, and a lot of experience preparing fighters. Machado actually has been training quite a while, in his last fight we didnt see his ground game, which apparently is pretty good.

Prediction: Tony Orozco Rd 2 Submission

Mike: Get ready for a slugfest in the one. Both these guys have the requisite old man strength and will brawl until one (or both) of them tire out. Both these guys can take a punch but I see the difference here being Tony’s grappling game. That should make all the difference in the world.

Prediction: Tony Orozco Rd 1 Submission

Rich: Machado loves to stand and bang but is even more comfortable on the ground. Problem is Tony is a brown belt with serious power who would feel right at home on the mat.Tony has the deeper skill set but does he have the cardio?

Prediction: Tony Orozco Rd 2 TKO

Jermaine: Theres sometime that I hate that we are all so close in the Houston scene. This is one of them. Machado is one of my training partners and has been for many years and Tony is a friend of mine and a good guy. With that aside, none of us have seen Tony fight, but being a coach, id imagine hes got some skills. Machado is a very tough guy with a very well rounded skill set. I dont see either of these tough old bastards knocking each other out. I see it going the distance with Machado taking the win by finding his openings and using his technical striking.

Prediction: Shawn Machado Unanimous Decision

Jon Kirk vs Andrew Craig

Jon Kirk Jon Kirk Name Andrew Craig Andrew Craig
El Jaguar Nickname Smiles
6’2″ / 185lbs Ht/Wt 6’1″ / 185lbs
#1 Rank #2
16-8-0 Record 3-0-0
No Gym on File Gym Team Tooke-Houston
Lance,Jermaine Picks Adam,AJ,Justin

Mike,Rich

Adam:

Prediction: Andrew Craig Rd 3 Submission

AJ: Craig may be the next big thing on the Houston scene. I have seen him spar for 5 + rounds with some of the top guys in Houston and impress them all with his skill and stamina. Kirk has the experience edge, but I think it is Craig’s time to shine.

Prediction: Andrew Craig Rd 3 TKO

Justin: Andrew Craig is one of the promising fighters coming out of the Houston MMA scene.  While Jon has a lot of experience I think he will have his hands full with the rising star.

Prediction: Andrew Craig Rd 2 Submission

Lance: Both of these guys are great fighters, and I think we’ll be in for a fantastic fight. Kirk has beaten guys like Chad cook, Chris Spicer and Brandon McDowell. His performance against Larry Hopkins showed some great Jiu-jitsu.

Craig has a much shorter record, and is well known as a rising fighter on the local scene. The tough decision is whether Jon Kirk’s experience, and longevity in the sport is a great benefit. I didnt think we saw the standup in the Hopkins fight that I would like to have done from Kirk, but I am going to go with Kirk for this one.

Prediction: Jon Kirk Rd 3 TKO

Mike: This has been said in a few interviews/articles here in town as of late but this is definitely a battle of new school vs. old school. This is as tough of one to call as they come. It may come down to strategy and/or preparation and I don’t have the inside scoop on either so literally a coin flip on this one.

Prediction: Andrew Craig Unanimous Decision

Rich: Jon Kirk has been one of the best fighters in the state for a few years. Craig is the young stud looking to prove his label as one of the cities best.

Prediction: Andrew Craig Unanimous Decision

Jermaine: I believe this is gonna be the fight of the night. You have the veteran and current middleweight kingpin in the rankings vs one of the top middleweight prospects in the Texas MMA scene. This will be a human chess match no doubt. Not taking anything away from Craig, but I don’t think hes gonna be able to de-claw The Jaguar. I see Kirk using his experience to grind out the decision.

Prediction: Jon Kirk Unanimous Decision

Ike Villanueva vs Lex Pappas

Ike Villanueva Ike Villanueva Name Lex Pappas Lex Pappas
Nickname
6’3″ / 205lbs Ht/Wt 6’2″ / 185lbs
#1 Rank Not Ranked
7-4-0 Record 2-3-0
No Gym on File Gym Gold Team Fighters Houston
Justin,Lance,Mike

Rich,Jermaine

Picks Adam,AJ

Adam:

Prediction: Lex Pappas Rd 2 Submission

AJ: Ike hits like a truck, but Lex’s biggest strength lies in Ike’s biggest weakness. I think Lex stays on the feet until he feels uncomfortable, then shoots in and controls with ground and pound before locking on a sub.

Prediction: Lex Pappas Rd 2 Submission

Justin: Lex comes from the tough Gracie Barra TX camp so he will be prepared I just dont know if he will be prepared enough for the big Ike.  TCD lists Pappas as a middleweight so I cant seem him having more strength than Ike.

Prediction: Ike Villanueva Unanimous Decision

Lance: Hurricane Ike has been improving greatly between fights, a solid chin, and serious hand power may spell the win for him. Pappas, I have to say is someone I havent seen a lot of, training under the legendary Macacao, I’m sure he has some great skills.

Prediction: Ike Villanueva  Rd 2 TKO

Mike: Another tale of matchups here. it seems like Lex’ shot at winning this bout will only come if he is able to take Ike down and work on a submission. Villanueva knows that and will look to stay away or explode in bursts with his hands. I see Hurricane taking this one in the first round.

Prediction: Ike Villanueva Rd 1 KO

Rich: Lex is solid on the ground but is going to Have problem’s getting the fight to the ground ..look for Ike to come out fast trying to end the night quickly.

Prediction: Ike Villanueva  Rd 2 KO

Jermaine: I dont see this fight going outta the first round. Ike’s hands are just gonna be to much or Pappas to handle. Besides, I think at this point, Ike will pretty much do whatever hes gotta do to get a rematch with The Machine Gun, which is the fight I think we all wanna see. It is MMA and anything can happen, but I see Ike making short work of Pappas.

Prediction: Ike Villanueva Rd 1 KO

Derek Lewis vs Taylor Hebert

Derek Lewis Derek Lewis Name Taylor Hebert Taylor Hebert
The Black Beast Nickname
6’3″ / 246lbs Ht/Wt 6’2″ / 241lbs
#2 Rank #3
3-1-0 Record 1-0-0
Silverback Fight Club Gym Gracie Barra Texas
Adam,AJ,Justin,

Mike,Rich,Jermain

Picks Lance

Adam:

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 3 TKO

AJ: I think Lewis is just too strong for him. Hebert may control him for a while in the first round with this superior wrestling, but eventually I would expect a bomb to get through, and the “Black Beast” to be left standing.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 2 TKO

Justin: I think this fight is Derrick’s to lose. He is a beast and ultimately I think he will be too much to handle.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 2 TKO

Lance: “This one is a tough one to call… Derek lewis has been looking extremely strong, he previously showed his submission skills, and candidly told TheCageDoor.net that he has been keeping stuff back to prevent future opponents seeing his hand. No-one expected the sub victory, I have to wonder what else has he been holding back?

I havent really seen enough of Hebert, but I did see him training at the Rogue Fight crew gym, and he’s a tough guy, with skills on his feet and on the ground.
The rumors that lewis is dropping weight, makes me wonder if Lewis will be too light to deal with Hebert, but those are just rumors. Based on his experience, and undisclosed skill set Lewis may well give us a great display. Im not sure if hes been dropping weight he will be able to deal with Hebert as we’ve seen him deal with people in the past. On that basis, and not a strong basis at that, and having seen Hebert in training, I’ll pick him.

Prediction: Taylor Hebert Rd 3 TKO

Mike: Although they’re similar in size, Lewis may be a bad matchup for Taylor as “The Black Beast” is a strong yet athletic heavyweight who will make him work for those takedowns. This will begin to wear on him by the 2nd/3rd round and give Lewis the opportunity to land one of those bombs of his.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 3 TKO

Rich: Derrick Lewis is on a role and has been dominating all who stand in front of him.Hebert Is coming off of a lackluster performance Where he seemed to fatigue early.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 1 TKO

Jermaine: This is one of those fights that could go either way. Standing, id have to give Lewis the advantage and if he connects with one of those jack hammers he has connected to his shoulders, I think its gonna be a short night for Herbert. On the contrary, if this fight goes to  the ground, I think Herbert has the definite advantage and id look for him to use his wrestling and jiu jitsu to grind out the win. The big IF is IF he can take Lewis down and keep him there. If by chance this fight gets into the Championship rounds, Taylor has incredible cardio so I see it going in his direction, but I think Lewis is gonna look to finish it standing before that point.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis Rd 2 TKO


QUICK PICKS

Alex Black Alex Black vs Gilbert Jiminez Gilbert Jiminez
Adam,AJ,Justin,Lance,Mike,Rich,Jermaine PICKS

Terrance Ferguson Terrance Ferguson vs Joshua Foster Joshua Foster
Adam,AJ,Justin,Lance,Mike,Rich,Jermaine PICKS

Jason Sullivan Jason Sullivan vs Jared Taylor Jared Taylor
AJ,Justin,Lance,Rich,Jermaine PICKS Adam,Mike,

Larry Crowe Larry Crowe vs Jordan Clissold Jordan Clissold
Adam,Mike,Rich,Jermaine PICKS AJ,Justin, Lance,

Marc Ramirez Marc Ramirez vs Cody Hofstatter Jordan Clissold
Adam,AJ,Justin,Lance,Mike,Rich,Jermaine PICKS


AWARD PICKS

Awards Adam AJ Justin Lance Mike Rich Jermaine
Sub.
of the Night
Andrew Craig Andrew Craig Andrew Craig Pat Bierschwale Alex Black Alex Black Alex Black
KO
of the Night
Derrick Lewis Lex Pappas Derrick Lewis Ike Villanueva Ike Villanueva Larry Crowe Derrick Lewis
Fight
of the Night
Lewis vs Hebert Kirk vs Craig Villanueva vs Pappas Kirk vs Craig Kirk vs Craig Kirk vs Craig Kirk vs Craig

For complete coverage of IXFA 6, check out the IXFA section of TheCageDoor.net.